MVP voting has come and gone. And for the first time ever, I am happy about both MVP selections.
Hell, I am happy about both Cy Young award winners.
But unfortunately, the voters once again showed their inability to let go of archaic numbers that provide nothing but talking points towards a players worth. So for all you fans of "big Septembers", "RBI", "grit", and other crappy reasons for arguing a player's worth, this list is for you.
Ryan Braun, LF, Brewers: MVP of the Brewers' lineup? Definitely. But despite being outside of the top 15 in the NL in VORP and trailing such elite players as Russell Branyan and Denard Span of the Twins in EqA, managed to find himself third in MVP voting.
To be fair to Braun, he adjusted well to left field, but his sub-average OBP was worth third? Knowing players like Hanley Ramirez and Chipper Jones could not even break the top 10, I am not buying it.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: Yes, he was a key player in September. Yes, he had a big World Series.
But make no mistake, this was not the .313/.425/.659 monster of 2006. Factoring out September, his numbers were very average, and even factoring in September, his .339 OBP was below the league average.
- B/R Ticket Guide
Howard was 29th in NL VORP, and while his home runs were very valuable, the fact that 12 of 32 voters determined that a team would be better off with Howard (6.4 runs created/game) than Pujols (11.8 RC/g) is an absolute joke.
Francisco Rodriguez, CL, Angels: Someone needs to tell MVP and Cy Young voters that a standard MLB save is pitching one inning and giving up no more than one less run than the lead your team had before you entered.
K-Rod just happened to be on a team that provided him with many one to three run leads to convert into yet another save. He finished sixth in MVP voting, and third in Cy Young voting, despite having a not-so-stellar 3.09 defensive independent component ERA (DICE).
In turn, Cliff Lee had a 2.70, and Roy Halladay had a 2.90, as starters, and finished behind K-Rod in MVP voting. And K-Rod gave up 3.72 more walks per nine innings than Mariano Rivera, who had a DICE of 1.90. K-Rod had a first place MVP vote. Rivera, in turn, did not receive a single MVP vote.
Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins: Came dangerously close, again, to swiping the MVP. Despite finishing outside the top 10 in AL VORP, again, he finished second in AL MVP voting.
Ahead of Kevin Youkilis, who had a higher OBP, SLG, OPS+, EqA, VORP, etc, both playing first base. And more outrageously, ahead of teammate Joe Mauer, who, just like he did in 2006, finished far ahead of Morneau in VORP.
First base and catcher are on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of offensive expectation, yet they both had 137 OPS+'s. Yes, Morneau is a good player and plays good defense, but you could get the same good defense from both Youkilis and Mark Teixiera. With better offensive numbers.
Is there any catcher in MLB that can routinely get on base over 40% of the time? Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin are yet to approach Mauer's 2006 or 2008 OBP production.
comments (22) write a comment »
write a new comment
about 1 month ago
Nicely done. I still felt the MVP did not belong to Pedroia (I felt Youkilis was more deserving), but you've outlined great reasons for these guys not to win as well.
about 1 month ago
Also, how the Hell did K-Rod get a first place vote? Someone HONESTLY thought he was the most valuable player in the league. That writer should lose his voting privileges.
from about 1 month ago
Because it takes a lot for a major league pitcher to go a whole inning without giving up a run.
/sarcasm.
Just for reference, Cliff Lee gave up 4 runs in the 1st inning of his 31 starts. Not sure how many were earned, but even if they all were, that's a 1.45 ERA.
And I don't understand how 223 1/3 innings of Lee isn't as valuable as 68 1/3 of K-Rod.
about 1 month ago
Good arguments.
Good stats.
Good usage of the word "Hell" in the 3rd sentence.
I see the case and point of how certain players can be bashed for their performances while others appear "overlooked".
However, here's the other side of the coin:
Cliff Lee, without a doubt, deserved his CY Young Award, and it was a great story. His stats were just that much more impressive and his pitching was just that much more dominating than any other AL pitcher all year, even though he played for a team not good enough to make the playoffs. So, there's a deserving exception to the rule, continued below.
But, K-Rod ABSOLUTELY deserved consideration for any award aftervthe year he had. I don't care what team he pitches for or how many pitches and innings he needs to get a save. His job is to come in to a game and finish it off. He did that. He shattered the record for most saves in a single season while doing it. His team went to the playoffs, again. How does that not deserve something? Anything? Why punish him for playing for a good team and doing his job successfully?
After all, didn't we just reward Albert Pujols for being good on a team that didn't play in October? I love that guy and hope he rivals all of the top records before he leaves the game. I hate that Bonds stole many deserving awards from him over the past few years, but I will always be bothered by a player getting the MVP Award who did not help to lead his team to the playoffs, unless there is a clear cut case for him to win it, which yes, can happen, obviously.
Ryan Braun's year helped his team make it to the playoffs, ending their ridiculously long drought. He deserved any of the consideration he got.
Ryan Howard wasn't my vote. Yet, his Phillies won the Series for that beleaguered city. He deserved any of the consideration he got.
Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau, and Dustin Pedroia? The same.
In addition, where is Brad Lidge in this argument? Do you realize the type of year he just had? Flawless. Perfect. His team also won the Series.
You cannot tell me Mariano Rivera deserved more accolades than the two above-mentioned closers. The other two saw the playoffs, and the Yankees missed them.
MVP= Most Valuable Player.
It's not PWBS= Player With Best Stats
Who cares how they get it done?
They got it done.
End of story.
Give 'em some credit.
from about 1 month ago
Need to remember the difference between "giving credit" and "overrating".
Howard's VORP was a 36.6, and played sub-prime defense. He'd be approximately a +3 win player.
Mark Teixiera's VORP was 30.3...during his 4 months in Atlanta.
And how does a team's success determine what players deserve recognition? Every metric known to man says Rivera was absolutely spectacular in 2008, and if the Yankees were an AL Central team, they likely win the division and we hear all about what a "fantastic leader" Rivera is. A player can only control their own output, and if Rivera was on the Angels, he would've gotten all the saves K-Rod got, and then some.
about 1 month ago
Good article and arguments.
I wish you had explained what VORP and EqA were because I'm not a sabermetrician and have no idea.
But, I'm glad that someone else realizes just how moderate Ryan Howard was this year. I did an article on the MVP candidates and I wanted badly to place him third, but voters are just so friggin' hung up on slugging. This year, he was a shadow of MVP Ryan Howard and I don't think many people realize that.
Hanley Ramirez not getting a single MVP vote has got to be one of the biggest crocks of s*** that happened this year. Florida played well for a lot of the year when no one expected ANYTHING from them. His contributions, that whole infield's contributions as a matter of fact, deserves to have at least some credit.
Check out my MVP article and see if you agree on the arguments.
-Dylan
about 1 month ago
Great article. I love Ryan Howard. He's one of my favorite ballplayers of all-time. But being completely honest, he did not even close deserve anything near the MVP. His teammate, Chase Utley, finished 15th. Utley was more valuable to the Phillies this year.
And K-Rod should not be considered, because he got too many "easy" saves. Lidge, however, should because he did not blow a single save all season, and got some tough ones - see the save that won us the division.
about 1 month ago
Cody i completely agree with you about Utley and Lidge lidge was perfect this entire season as was probably one the key components to the phillies world series win he should have gotten a higher consideration in CY Young but not mvp
about 1 month ago
howard has 1/3rd chance of striking out in a game, thats at least one a game. hes more a liability than an asset.
from about 1 month ago
whoa now, let's not be carried away here.
Howard is nowhere near the level of Pujols in terms of production. But he is at least top 15 in the NL, if not top 10. Striking out is really not much worse than any other form of an out. The end result is usually the same.
about 1 month ago
I am not sure if I agree with your assumption Youklis was better than Morneau. Sure he might have had the numbers to be better, but you also have to compare the lineups they are both in. I am sure if you stuck Morneau in the middle of the Boston lineup he would have similar numbers. Morneau had little protection in the Twins lineup, and he relly pressed in the last month or so to produce. He chased a lot of pitches because pitchers knew nobody in the lineup could produce like him. Mauer and him are the main threats in that lineup, but Mauer is not the homerun threat so they can pitch to him and pitch around Morneau. So, comparing Morneau and Youklis by numbers is hard to do, because Youklis has the better lineup and is not the main focus in the Red Sox lineup.
from about 1 month ago
That's semi-true, but you have to remember that Jason Kubel isn't exactly a chump with a 118 OPS+. Albeit not JD Drew's 137. And it's not like Morneau had to press and hit HR's for RBI opportunities, as Denard Span and Joe Mauer's production in front of him provided plenty of RBI opportunities.
That being said, Youkilis's OBP was 16 points higher than Morneau's, and his OPS+ was 6 points higher. If anything, the players are equal, and Mauer should've finished in front of both in MVP voting.
about 1 month ago
Joe, I see all of your stats and I get your stances on the subject, but man, it just reminds me of Billy Beane Baseball here. And, he certainly has won a lot of World Series titles in recent years with his mathematical equations and stats...
from about 1 month ago
You can view Billy Beane that way, or you can view Billy Beane in his ability to field a competitive team with a bottom 5 payroll.
And it's not like the A's are the only team who uses this model for success. Many key Red Sox contributors are valued in the stats-heavy sense.
And according to the most basic Runs Created formula (OBP x SLG x AB), the Phillies were 3rd in the NL, behind the loaded Cubs lineup and the Cardinals lineup complete with Pujols, the also very good Ryan Ludwick, and then a lineup of primarily average hitters outside of Cezar Izturis.
Simply put, it's not because Billy Beane overuses stats, it's because the A's don't spend money. In turn, we see what happens to big market teams who ignore these numbers in Seattle and San Francisco.
about 1 month ago
Either way, my friend Joe, it comes down to Championships. It always has. It always will. That's all that really matters. Stress the numbers as much as you want, but only one number matters in the end.
from about 1 month ago
And it's not a coincidence that teams that usually win these championships are the statistically strong ones.
The 2002 Angels were half anomaly, half Troy Glaus killing everything in the postseason. The 2008 Angels finished 12 games ahead of their Pythagorean W-L and it showed in the series vs. the Red Sox.
And I'd like you to honestly tell me you'd rather have Ryan Howard over Albert Pujols, or Ryan Braun over Chipper Jones, or Francisco Rodriguez over Mariano Rivera? And if you can, I want to hear why.
about 1 month ago
I'm growing tired of this conversation already, Joe. Everything in life loves to be about "the numbers". You could draw up a statistic about the best way to shop in Publix for your groceries to be the cheapest way to shop and also the fastest. Does it necessarily mean anything? No. They're numbers, and how much you equate and leave importance in them is your discretion, but it doesn't mean they're the deciding factor in who wins and who loses. I think we're seeing the emergence of teams finding success and Championships in all sports because they practice the importance of team and they have a great team chemistry. That togetherness spawns success, but if you need numbers to prove your point, so be it. Just remember, there's always somebody better than you out there in something, but it still depends on where you lay the importance of the numbers, of the team, and of the results. You obviously have your way, and I said I get that. And I have mine. As far as the players you bring up, Joe... I would rather have Pujols over Howard because of his all around play. I would rather have Chipper because I'm a Braves fan. And I would rather have K-Rod because he's not 50. And again, my point is simple...I'm not tearing down players against others because their JPEG was better than their Megapixels. Those players I am giving credit to helped lead their team to the postseason this year while the others sat on their couches. That's all I'm saying. It's a simple point. I'm not condoning yours, because sometimes it can lead to success. Sometimes it doesn't... It's not that serious.
from about 1 month ago
Team chemistry?
The statistics I've pointed out are statistics measuring a player's individual contribution to a team's success, independent to his teammate's success. This isn't football, this isn't basketball, the "will of a champion" won't make a team suddenly get 20 home runs out of Juan Pierre. This is the same mentality that keeps getting David Eckstein starting jobs and made white Sox fans go 2 1/2 seasons before they learned Scott Podsednik sucks.
about 1 month ago
And I'm simply pointing out while they're great players and great stats, they either got beat or were watching the Series from their couch rather than celebrating in their clubhouse. And Scott Podsednik's stock certainly has dropped in recent days, but he was a vital asset to the White Sox's 2005 Championship season. Again, I get your point of the importance of stats and I can agree with you in a lot of ways, and again, all I'm saying is players and teams come together when it counts and that allows them to win Championships, exactly what we're seeing these days. The numbers then disappear and all that matters is lifting that trophy. Thanks for the input, Joe. God Bless.
from about 1 month ago
But the teams with the numbers usually are the ones lifting the trophy in the end.
The Phillies were a great team effort because they had players like Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Jason Werth, and when he finally did something other than Strikeout or Homer in September, Ryan Howard. Their starting pitching was also good down the stretch, and their bullpen was great.
You can say a guy got it done when it mattered, I can say in the same situation, someone else would've gotten the job done better. And as evidenced by Game 2 of the ALDS, I'm not wrong.
from 24 days ago
And one major thing you forget.
You forget that Bill James is currently an employee of the Boston Red Sox, and that both owner John Henry and GM Theo Epstein were fans of his work.
So how'd that work out for Boston?
24 days ago
Bill James has worked out great for the Boston Red Sox with his sabermetrics and influence on the game. That's a great point to support your argument, Joe.
write a new comment