One thing is clear to every fantasy football owner: He who scores the most points wins. Week after week, we scratch our heads and try to predict the answer to this question to the best of our ability: Who is going to score points this week?
Fortunately for us, fantasy football owners aren’t the only people pondering these questions. Approximately $40 million is wagered on football each weekend in Nevada, according to USA Today.
That’s real money, folks. You thought you had problems because it’s going to cost you two bucks to drop Laurence Maroney. (Do it anyway.)
Each week, one can wager on football in several ways in Las Vegas. The most popular wagers are the Game Line and the Over/Under. Because $40 million a week is riding on these results, you can bet there are people out there doing major research on the subjects.
As a fantasy football owner, you can borrow this research as you decide whom to start and sit each week. Las Vegas has done their homework, and you might as well copy their answers.
Part One: The Over/Under
The over/under is a simple bet: Las Vegas sets a number of points for a game, 42, for instance. If more than 42 points are scored in that game (total, both teams) and you bet the over, you win. If under 42, you lose. Simple enough.
It’s safe to say that 42 is the expected number of points to be scored in that game. As a fantasy owner, if you check the over/under every week, you’ll know which games Las Vegas thinks will be high scoring.
Very useful information.
Start players in the high-scoring games, and with all other things being equal, you'll score more points and win more games.
Part Two: Game Lines
But the over/under doesn’t tell us everything we need to know. What if the over/under is high because our team is going to get beat 44-6? Sorry Seahawks.
Las Vegas has an opinion on who's going to win called the game line. For instance, next week, the Dallas Cowboys are five-and-a-half point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals. If you bet on the Cowboys, they must win by at least six points for you to win your bet.
The over/under on the Cowboys game is 50. So Las Vegas is saying that they expect the Cowboys to beat the Cardinals by five-and-a-half with 50 total points being scored in the game.
28–22 Cowboys would be the expected final score.
Conclusions
When you take these two pieces of information into consideration as you set your lineup, you’re able to get the market’s best guess at how many points each team will score.
I could bore you with a dissertation on the merits of the efficient market hypothesis, but it’s better if you just trust me that this is a credible source.
Quite simply: Start players from favored teams when the over/under is high. These players rate to score more points than players in games with low over/unders.
Easy enough, right?
Applying this strategy over time should lead to higher point totals for your team.
Thanks for reading, and feel free to leave your questions on specific situations here. I'll be answering questions every day until Saturday.
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about 1 month ago
Authors Note:
It’s impossible for me to talk about gambling in this country without mentioning the Safe Port Act of 2006. This bill was supposed to shore up our ports against terrorist attack.
While nobody was looking a rider was added to the bill prohibiting U.S banks from transferring money to foreign gambling sites.
This law made it so that United States citizens are the only people in North America who are prohibited from gambling on American football over the Internet. Funny, isn't it? Blame Canada.
“Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
Benjamin Franklin
about 1 month ago
You know.. I really do hate Fantasy Football, but the way you break down the science of it makes it so logical for people who might not understand football too well. When I did play, I did fairly well even though I didn't understand the drop/add players thing. I didn't know to bench guys for bye weeks, etc. I did fairly well on pure football knowledge.
But this seems like a good strategy for people that might not get it right away. If a team is expected to score a lot of points, it only makes sense to stick with that team's weapons.
Good piece, Buddy. Hope the CBS thing keeps taking off for you.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for your thoughts as always Angel.
I can't wait to see your new stuff.
about 1 month ago
buddy,
this article proves why cbs keeps picking up your stuff.
completely different angle on fantasy, yet so logical and sound.
great work.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks Dan,
That's pretty much what I try to provide: economics and gambling based strategies for making fantasy football decisions.
Rather than print lists of what to do, teach people how to make decisions for themselves.
Thanks again for your kind words.
about 1 month ago
Buddy this is a very insightful tip. I think it's most applicable when finding a D you want to play. I'm picking up the Colts (v Ravens this week) and will try it out. O/U 39, Colts by 5 1/2 when the line came out.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for reading and commenting.
The Colts could do well this week.
For more on picking Defenses see:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/65795-fantasy-advice-how-to-tackle-defensive-scoring
about 1 month ago
good article. interesting take and connections between the two.
from about 1 month ago
Hey Ryan,
Thanks for reading and commenting. If you enjoyed this piece, you might also like:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/65795-fantasy-advice-how-to-tackle-defensive-scoring
Have a great week.
about 1 month ago
Very clever take, Buddy. It's an interesting idea that is stated very clearly. You get my Pick of the Day.
from about 1 month ago
Thank you so much for the pick!
about 1 month ago
I think this is the first article of yours that I've read and I really enjoyed it. It was good info and easy to comprehend. I think I'll use it and see if my 1-4 fantasy team can pull off a win this week.
5 Stars, POTD.
from about 1 month ago
Hey thanks so much for the pick!
Check my last few articles out...they can really help you kick the 1-4 blues.
Thanks again for reading and the pick.
from about 1 month ago
Well, I don't know how I'll ever kick the 1-4 blues. I have Jon Kitna and David Garrard as my quarterbacks. Ha!
from about 1 month ago
yikes. join another league!
about 1 month ago
Great read
from about 1 month ago
thanks for reading and commenting.
about 1 month ago
As someone with an Economics degree, this seems obvious to me, but I can see where others might not consider it or might overlook the importance of it. You have laid out your thoughts well.
I think you could even remove the "preference" for players on favored teams. Case in point: teams that are always behind will throw the ball incessantly. If a team is a large underdog but they have some talent at QB or WR, these would also be good plays. (Not everyone has the luxury of having players on high-scoring, winning teams.)
Well-written, Buddy.
from about 1 month ago
I minored in econ, and yeah it's obvious to people who have studied those sorts of things.
Let's be honest, we're in the vast minority for having studied econ...that is a crying shame that should be fixed.
The fact that you must take art in high school, but can't take econ in most schools is frustrating. I'd trade my three years of french for another year of monetary economics if I had to do it over again.
Anyway most people haven't been over this material.
Thanks for the compliment and for reading.
about 1 month ago
Can't use the best players if over/under is high. Case in point as the guy who said above you when teams are trailing. I never keep WR on teams that blow people out, Moss, Johnson, & Owens are exceptions.
This is a good guide for people getting a secondary source for picking players, but I would never offer this to traditional analysis.
Market efficiency is useless because the lines on Friday are convoluted from irrational sources. If one good team ( Cowboys ) face another team that is good ( Redskins ), the Cowboys create an inefficiency in the gambling market because:
A: The House has to transfer points based on bets. If everyone is betting the over, the over/under has to rise so people can bet the under to offset the accumulation of capital to one side.
B: These bets are made by specialists, as well as just plain joe gamblers. These bets, which not all are professional, are creating movements in the lines for no reason other than rooting for the home team. Although depending on the game, more professional bets could come in, the betting lines coming towards any new game is always tainted.
C: The Cowboys are being bet on because they are the Cowboys. There hasn't been exposure of the Redskins team being great, therefore a lot of mis-informed fans will choose the Cowboys, or will choose the over without second-guessing the quality of a fast-moving secondary of the Redskins on turf. This happens in many a superbowl ( Pats-Giants, TB-Oakland, Pats-St. Louis ), and has lead to massive losses on the side of the predicted winner.
From that point, the Las Vegas line in itself may be a good guide if people follow the logic of the Tuesday lines, but even then you have a lot of other analysis to predict:
1. Who runs more, and who passes more
2. Does team A run more when they are ahead? Do they try to hit the end zone and extend the lead before 4th?
3. Does Team B have great defense, but tend to fatigue because of lousy offense in the 4th ( This is usually those teams that have 3-13 seasons, get one offensive weapon, and boom, they're 10-6).
4. Does an increase of throwing go against a team's game vs. certain teams? ( ie: Favre trailing against a good secondary or blitzing LBs? Good luck! ).
Essentially, I can exhaust the list, making analysis at the end of the day, a lot more important than using Las Vegas.
I am not bashing your article, but the analogy to market efficiency to the open-market of gambling is simplistic at best. It disregards how the lines themselves become seduced by fans who will put top dollar on teams they have absolutely no clue about, and how much the lines change to protect the house, and not indicate a definite winner.
from about 1 month ago
Below are some points where I disagree:
"The House has to transfer points based on bets. If everyone is betting the over, the over/under has to rise so people can bet the under to offset the accumulation of capital to one side."
-If you are correct the over/under reflects what people did with their hard earned money.
"These bets are made by specialists, as well as just plain joe gamblers. These bets, which not all are professional, are creating movements in the lines for no reason other than rooting for the home team. Although depending on the game, more professional bets could come in, the betting lines coming towards any new game is always tainted."
-If these bets are irrational and based on the size of the cities involved, you must have figured out a way to beat the lines consistently by now... I doubt you have.
"The Cowboys are being bet on because they are the Cowboys." - Speaking of over simplistic views. If this were the case you could make a living simply betting against the Cowboys every week.
What you're forgetting is Las Vegas is under no obligation to even out the capital on each side of the bet. Sometimes they're willing to take a position, and allow all us stupid people to impale ourselves with our pre-conceived notions.
Thanks for reading- I'm always up for vibrant discussion.
28 days ago
Although I was brought up with a moral understanding that gambling is a sin, your article was very informative. :-)
Especially your comment on the federal restriction on online gaming. Interesting.
Great job. Short, but cyrstal-clear once again.
from 28 days ago
So are you suggesting longer pieces in general? (I don't take hints very well) :)
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