The N.L. Central, the division widely considered the strongest in the National League, has been sent home for the remainder of the season. The Cubbies, with an NL best 97 wins, were swept by the Dodgers and the wild card Brewers only managed to win a single game against the Phillies.
Now, the Central is a mere afterthought for the season as the Phillies and Dodgers must focus on the series ahead. The Phillies have home-field advantage in the series, which could be a critical factor in deciding the winner.
These teams met eight times this season, all in August, for a pair of four-game series. The Dodgers swept the Phils at home and the Phillies returned the favor two weeks thereafter, splitting the season series at four games each.
The Dodgers have shown they can win on the road in the playoffs thus far and in dominating fashion, too. Manny Ramirez has been batting a cool .500, and the fielding has been near perfect. They have been showing tons of confidence and have been producing in key situations. The quality of Dodger baseball has been impressive indeed.
On the other hand, the Phillies have been winning in mundane fashion. The Brewers generally kept it close and even managed to take one out of the four. The only real excitement came when Shane Victorino ripped a grand slam against CC Sabathia.
Both Dodger Stadium and Citizens Bank Park can be considered pitchers' ballparks. The outfields are deep all the way around, with Dodger Stadium being slightly larger all around, except in center field.
On the other side of the plate, both teams have power hitters of immense proportions.
Manny just needs to be Manny. As long as he comes up to the plate and delivers, the Dodgers should be in pretty good shape. His presence has taken a lot of stress off of the young Dodger players and commands respect for anyone else in the lineup.
Ryan Howard should come into a groove with all the right-handed pitching the Dodgers have to offer. Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Greg Maddux, Jonathan Broxton, and Takashi Saito are all righties. Clayton Kershaw and Joe Beimel are the only lefties on the postseason roster.
Howard has batted .268—which is about .20 higher than his season average—and has 34 home runs against righties this season. He has also struck out 103 times against them.
A left-handed Chase Utley and a switch-hitting Shane Victorino should cause a bit of trouble for the Dodgers as well. They are each batting about .300 and have combined for 25 homers and over 100 RBI against right-handed pitching.
The Phillies have decent pitching; it just isn't outstanding. They will have Cole Hammels facing Derek Lowe in Game One, followed by Brett Myers against Billingsley in Game Two. Kuroda will face Moyer when the series shifts to L.A.
It is pretty safe to say that the Dodgers' bats should have success against the Phillies' pitching. They have a good balance of righties and lefties, as well as guys that hit for average and power.
The Dodgers can run the bases well and should look to exploit the weak right side of the Phillies' defense.
The key to the game is how well the Phillies bat against the Dodgers. Dodger pitching has been good all year. It got even better in September and was scorching hot against the Cubs.
The numbers say that the Phillies' bats will be shut down, but favorable matchups have been drawn for them. Will Chase Utley and Ryan Howard show up, or will they be blown away?
The series starts Thursday in Philadelphia. By my estimation, it will end by the following Wednesday. The Dodgers will take one on the road and win all three at home: Dodgers in five games.
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about 1 month ago
Great preview Michael..You make good points on all accounts..I'm coming out with my NLCS/ALCS preview by tomorrow..Keep up the good work man.
about 1 month ago
Eh - Dodger's pitching is only marginally better than the Phils, if that. Everything else I agree with. If Howard and Utley show up (which they should) then the Phils take it.
from about 1 month ago
I don't know about marginal. Numbers say that both are good and the Dodgers are best in the NL, at least as of late. The Dodgers pitching roster is probably the deepest in the entire playoffs, but they do lack lefties. Howard and Utley can't just show up, they gotta show up big. That being said, I don't think they will and it should be relatively easy for the Dodgers.
about 1 month ago
Well done Michael - you make many good observations in this piece.
One thing I would disagree with is calling Citizens Bank Park a pitchers park. I've considered it a bandbox just a bit bigger than in Houston and Cincinnati. Not fantastic for pitchers.
from about 1 month ago
Perhaps I was a bit ambitious in calling Citizens Bank a pitchers park, but it is pretty close in size to Dodger Stadium, which is clearly a pitchers ballpark. Here are some numbers I was able to dig up from ESPN.com:
Left Left-Center Center Right-Center Right
Citizens Bank 329 371 401 369 330
Dodger Stadium 330 385 395 385 330
Dodger Stadium has a rounded symmetrical shape, whereas Citizens Bank has kind of a trapezoidal shape in the outfield. In any case, pretty impressive for the Phils to put up 799 runs this season.
about 1 month ago
The ball carries really well at Citizens Bank park in the hot days of summer. The Phillies have never played there this late in the year. I wonder of the cool air will make the park a little more pitcher friendly?
about 1 month ago
Dodger pitching is not hindered by a lack of lefties. They didn't even use Joe Beimel in the NLDS and Kuo is coming back. That's two good ones right there.
Add Corey Wade, Jonathan Broxton, Greg Maddux, and Takashi Saito and you've got game over if they're winning after 6.
The question is can Brett Myers make it out of the 3rd?
We will see.
Dodgers in 5, I will be there.
from about 1 month ago
I'm not completely sure, but I don't think Kuo is on the postseason roster.
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