Another week, another mediocre record picking NFL games (6-7 last week, 29-29 overall). I’m like the New England Patriots (pre-Tom Brady injury), I don’t hit my stride until about Week Eight.
The key is to stay afloat until about Week Six. It typically takes Vegas about a month longer than an observant fan does to get good reads on the real quality of most NFL teams.
Which means October is the month where real gamblers can make some serious money.
For example, in the lines below you’ll notice a few things:
1) Vegas is overrating the Texans based on preseason expectation.
2) Vegas is underrating the Bills.
3) Vegas thinks the Cowboys are as good as last year’s Patriots.
Until Vegas figures these (and other things) out, you can make some money. If you’re smart. And if gambling is legal where you are. Not me. Because gambling isn’t legal. I just do this for fun.
…
Anyway, on to the picks!
(Home teams in CAPS)
Indianapolis (-3) over HOUSTON
It’s time for the Colts to shake off the early season cobwebs and start dominating inferior teams. The Houston Texans are perfect fodder for a superior team looking to get back on track.
Look for Peyton to get his groove early and carry it towards a blowout victory.
BALTIMORE (+2.5) over Tennessee
Yes, I understand that Tennessee’s defense should also be able to dominate Baltimore’s offense. Yes, I understand that Tennessee might be the second or third-best team in football so far this season.
I just have a guy feeling, that’s all...
San Diego (-6.5) over MIAMI
Miami spent two weeks celebrating their victory over the New England Patriots.
Funny thing about Miami: They still suck.
I worry about San Diego a little though. Their defense seems to have a tendency to fold late against good teams, and their offense was dominated for three quarters by the Oakland Raiders.
That said, Miami sucks.
CAROLINA (-9.5) over Kansas City
The picks basically comes down to the fact that I don’t trust Herm Edwards.
He has a formula that should, at the very least, keep games close. I just don’t think he’s going to follow it.
For those of you not aware, that formula’s name is Larry Johnson.
Washington (-6) over PHILADELPHIA
I made it a point to say that I think Philadelphia is going to win this weekend. I stand by that comment. But they’ll win by three or four, not six or seven.
Washington is playing out of their skull right now, but the Eagles need this win. They’re desperate, especially considering how well the rest of their division has been playing.
Desperate teams tend to win in the NFL.
Chicago (-3.5) over DETROIT
Everyone beats Detroit!
True story, I picked up Kyle Orton and inserted him in my fantasy football team’s starting lineup for this week. THAT is how bad Detroit’s defense is.
GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Atlanta
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3 months ago
I'm not sure if you know this but NO president can pronounce the word "nuclear". I dislike Bush as much as the next guy but if ur gonna trash him, use one of the 265 quotes of his that were dumb enuff to make into a calender. The Pats looked decent, yes it was the niners but Cassel finally found Moss with a deep route, which was a good sign despite Cassel's 2 picks. 30 points is 30 points even if it is scored on San Fran. How 'bout the Skins though! just keep picking against them and they'll win the NFC East for sure.
3 months ago
Just wanted to say that I also picked up Kyle Orton to start this week against Detroit (my starter is on a bye and Garrard is my backup who I have no faith in this season) and boy was I happy, especially when around half my mates in the league openly laughed at me for it.
Cant wait till I see them this week aye. Keep up the good work
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