If there's one fight MMA fans want to see, it's the rematch between BJ Penn and Georges St. Pierre. It's been more than two years since their first battle at UFC 58, but you wouldn't know it considering that debates on MMA forums over their first battle run hot on a 24/7 basis.
Here are the typical arguments:
"GSP only won by lay and pray!"
"BJ did more damage!"
"BJ would have won if he was in shape!"
and finally...
"EYE POKE!"
Given that both fighters are fan favorites and top 5 pound for pound fighters, and especially since the first match was somewhat controversial, it's safe to say that this is the biggest MMA fight of all time, at least for the hard core fans. People will complain about BJ getting a welterweight title shot ahead of contenders like Diego Sanchez and Thiago Alves, and that the rematch throws the lightweight division into flux. But let's get real: every serious MMA fan in the world is going to be watching this fight.
A lot of attention has been drawn to the prospect of UFC Champion Randy Couture taking on Pride legend Fedor Emelianenko, but I have a hard time believing that it will be a very competitive match. While Randy often draws up brilliant game plans and has made a career of shocking people who counted him out, Fedor is simply too explosive and has too good a stand up game for Randy to handle.
However, BJ-GSP 2 will likely be a much more competitive fight - both fighters are clearly in there primes and are no doubt #1 in their weight classes. They each lead a thundering herd of enthusiastic fans and in fact, BJ's following in Hawaii is so big that he might headline a stadium show there. The UFC is also likely to be very aggressive in marketing this fight, with MMARated.com reporting that BJ-GSP 2 will receive a major multi-part documentary treatment.
So with all that good stuff in mind, let's look at the rematch, which is expected to occur on January 31, 2009 during Super Bowl weekend.
For BJ to win, he's going to have to hurt GSP because the odds do not favor a decision victory for the Hawaiian. BJ is likely to have a 'take one to give one' attitude during this fight, so he'll have to really get inside and be aggressive to do some damage. As far as submissions go, the fact that the fight is 5 rounds may actually favor BJ because he will have more time to catch GSP making a mistake.
But ultimately, this match will come down to GSP's takedowns. If he can consistently take BJ down while effectively defending against the Prodigy's submission attempts, he's very likely to a decision victory. On the question of BJ's conditioning, he'll likely come into this fight in excellent shape but there is zero question that Georges will have better conditioning.
At the end of the day, I'd expect Georges to come away the victor at least 6 out of 10 times. BJ is a uniquely skilled fighter with unparalleled flexibility, a granite chin, and a knack for avoiding damage on the ground, but GSP has the ability to overpower him with sheer, brute force.
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3 months ago
St. Pierre is a bit too big for BJ.
Both men are skilled beyond belief, on par with the skills of Fedor + they are smaller, so they can do even more amazing stuff and they can do it faster than the top HWs.
GSP has a weakness in that he gets gun-shy, and doesn't trust his own chin anymore.
BJ's weakness is his cardio.
It'll be an interesting fight. Mostly it'll depend on BJ's jab, GSP's size, and BJ's gas tank. Hard fight to pick, but GSP should win 6 out of 10 simply due to size :)
3 months ago
Solid first article Michael. And welcome to the Bleacher community! Its always great to have a new mma fan and burgeoning writer on board.
I liked your assessment of the fight, and from a first read, seems like you have a good handle on what might happen. BJ's take down defense vs GSP's takedown abilities, which are both world class, may be the deciding factor.
Your are right in saying that BJ will have to be aggressive and try to rattle GSP's confidence early on by checking his chin. When GSP finally gets it to the ground Penn will have to be defensive and hope the referee has to stand the fight back up where Penn wants it.
Great job and look forward to your next article!
from 3 months ago
On the ground BJ Penn will use his hips to try to constantly move and go for subs to keep GSP busy (similar to Nog VS Fedor 2 -the NC fight; Nog kept moving and trying one sub after another to keep Fedor busy and not giving him time for GnP). BJ doesn't fight defensively. His hips are an offensive weapon. If you stall on the ground VS GSP you're dead, because he's going to start that body slam he does (driving your back into the octagon surface) etc
3 months ago
Brian, thanks for the welcome! I hope to post a new article here at least every few days.
from 3 months ago
I will look froward to your next article. Great to have a fresh perspective in the BR community! Thanks to your article for starting this thread.
3 months ago
Anthony,
When I said Penn will have to be defensive it would have made more sense to say offensive. Thanks for clarifying. When I said defensive I meant he will have to fight back to the point where the ref will want to stand the fight back up where Penn will have an advantage. Bad choice of wording on my part.
You are a tough one on this site. No one can get anything by you. I am really starting to respect your abilities. Like we will come to respect these two fighter's abilities after the fight. Great comments!
3 months ago
So I'll throw out another question here: where would the odds have to be for you to make a bet on BJ or GSP? I get the feeling the odds will favor betting on GSP - a lot of emotional money will be placed on BJ.
3 months ago
I have no idea how to call this, it's a dream match up for those of us that want to see these kind of matches.
BJ is so hard to take down, with those rubber limbs of his, but GSP's wrestling is a cut above anyone BJ's faced so far. Problem for GSP is taking him down, the one place you don't want to be with BJ is on the ground, whether you have control or not, whether BJ's on his back or not. Conversely, GSP is no slouch when it comes to submissions himself, and BJ needs to be careful not to fall foul while attempting something himself.
GSP's stand-up is excellent, and you have to give the edge to him in this department, but BJ is much better on his feet than people give him credit for (or, rather, they're only now beginning to give him credit as a stand-up fighter, as it's easy to be overcome with the sheer wonderment of his ground skills), and has no problem standing toe-to-toe with anyone, has a very good chin, and is always willing to throw out the odd explosive strike like flying knees, backfists, etc. For all of GSP's skill in the stand-up department, people forget in their last meeting BJ looked like he'd been for a 10K run, GSP looked like he'd been beaten by 3 people. Saying GSP has improved since then is irrelevant, because so has BJ, and what's more important, Penn's mental attitude seems to be on track these days, after his single minded demolition of Sherk and Stevenson.
Which brings it down to cardio. GSP will be in fabulous condition, we all know that. BJ ... lol. There's still that doubt about his dedication, but with the motivation of this fight I don't think it'll be a problem. GSP will have the edge, though.
BJ by submission or KO, or GSP by decision on workrate. I can't split it more than that, and won't be putting money on either of them.
from 3 months ago
Very detailed comment! I may have to disagree with you on who has the better stand-up. I think I am giving the edge to BJ in that department. He is more pinpoint in my opinion.
3 months ago
While I can't agree, I can't fault you for thinking that way. The fact we're debating this shows how good these 2 really are. BJ really is The Prodigy. In a discipline that's generally acknowledged to take 10 years or more to acheive black belt status, BJ did it in 3 years, and for someone that adept in ground fighting his stand-up is exceptional. GSP, having spent his active training life studying Karate then evolving into Muay Thai and boxing, has no right to be as superb as he is at wrestling. People spend a lifetime becoming competent in one facet of martial arts. For these 2 to be so good at so many things is freakish. They're anomalies, and that's why this may well end up being the most bought PPV in MMA history, at the very least it'll be around the Liddell Ortiz 2 figure.
2 months ago
It is gonna b very hard for gsp 2 take penn down and even if he does, bj is a world champion in brazillian jiu jitsu so he probably wont take much damage. and on the feet he has a tougher head than gsp. Penn will win by a beautiful finish. GOOD FIGHT though.
about 1 month ago
Both fighters are extremely talented theres no question about that..but if i were to pick a winner for this fight..i mean in my mind its a clear choice..GSP. There is no way that BJ in going to be able to take George to the ground..i mean if Josh Koscheck and Matt Hughes could not take down George then he should have no problems with stoping BJ on his take down attempts. If this fight were to go to the ground..St.pierre will be on top..and like Tito Ortiz said.."Jujitsu and all of your ground game gets thrown out the window when your getting elbowed and punched in the face" and in my mind theres no one in MMA that has a better ground and pound then GSP. You can make the arguement that BJ has better standup..just look at there first fight and the end of the first round..but i also believe that GSP has great standup to...just ask Jon Fitch lol. I think that GSP is going to win this fight by a unamious decision of 49 to 46 because i honestly cannot see George finishing BJ..but i definatly can see him giving him a beating that BJ has never seen before.
about 1 month ago
I think the only fighterwho stands a chance defeating GSP is Thiago Alves. As talented as BJ is, I just can's see that happening.
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